Prophet's of Doom

Recently I watched a program on The History channel in which six "experts" got together to predict the downfall of the United States (and civilization in general perhaps)

in the near future. According to these people, the U.S. and possibly civilization as we know it is on the brink of a major disaster from several sources. It was interesting, but I found that for the most part, their reasoning was completely flawed.

Take the coming oil shortage for example. Okay, at the moment, our chief source of energy is from oil, but it is obvious to anyone who keeps up with technology that there are many ways to obtain energy besides oil. To name a few: biofuel, coal, atomic energy, wind power, geothermal power, solar power, natural gas, garbage, and so forth. Also, by a few easy conservation methods, we could extend the supply of oil by many years. Just recently, I read an article about a tall office building that uses no fossil fuel for either heating or air conditioning and is completely self contained by using solar panels for all of its electrical needs. Also, as the price of oil increases, other methods of energy and conservation will become more popular. Just a year ago, when the price of gasoline shot up to four dollars a gallon in the U.S., high mileage hybrid autos began to sell.

The same is true of water. When clear fresh water becomes scarce, there are many ways of cleaning what we have by such as methods as removing salt from sea water, cleaning polluted water, not polluting it in the first place, etc. I'm sure we'll find a way.

As far as the money crisis goes, inflation and deflation run in cycles. Sure, at times such as the great depression, the recent downturn in the economy, the inflationary period in the 1980s and so forth, it seems that we are the brink of disaster, but things turn around. Much is made of the national debt, but this can be fixed if the politicians really desire it, by either cutting costs in big budget items such as the military or raising taxes on those who can afford to pay them. Or by trying some new ideas such as legalizing drugs and taxing them. This would provide a source of new revenues through taxation and reduce spending on policing. The post office could be privatized.

Then there was this guy Hugo De Gras who believes that artificial intelligent robots and computers will become smarter than humans and take over the world, keeping us at pets. I know that computers can do some marvelous things, for example this Watson beating contestants at Jeopardy, but artificial intelligence has a long way to go before it becomes as smart as people in the ability to respond to unfamiliar unprogrammed situations. And even if it did, certainly we would build in safeguards such as Isaac Asimov's three laws of robotics.

The one scenario that was really feasible came from Robert Gleason. He said that the greatest threat was from terrorists using atomic bombs. The knowledge for building such a bomb is readily available, the fissionable material can be easily stolen or bought and the security to guard against such a threat is practically non-existent. Of course, blowing up a major city may be devastating, but it certainly would not bring the United States to its knees.

What I found most troubling about the program was an undercurrent of anti-technology, anti-science to it. For one thing, one of their major assumptions was that the earth is a closed system and that once we run out of some natural resource it's just gone. Hogwash, we have an entire solar system to mine. Or if not, we can find, discover or create substitutes.

I had to shake my head at their solution to the problems they brought up. They proposed that we move out of our great cities and live in small self-contained agrarian villages where all our needs are provided by the local community. In other words, we should return to the way people lived in the middle ages. Are you kidding? Who would want to live like that?

Asteroid Collisions

In recent years, astronomers, paleontologists and geologists have given us one more thing to worry about. That a large meteor or comet may strike the earth and destroy humanity or at least a good portion of it. If a collision occurred between Earth and an asteroid a few kilometers in diameter, it would release as much energy as several million nuclear weapons detonating simultaneously. This would be enough to trigger a nuclear winter. Those who survived the blast might starve to death as all plant life died.

Recently we have seen a spate of science fiction movies with this theme, and it has been a staple of SF and doomsayers for a long time. How real is the threat? That is the question I intend to answer here. Note: Much of the information I gleaned from a Wikipedia article entitled "Impact Event." The Wikipedia has a lot more information about possible asteroid collisions with earth and other planets in the solar system.

Throughout recorded history, hundreds of minor impact events have been reported, with some occurrences causing deaths, injuries, property damage or other significant localized consequences. An impact event in an ocean or sea could create a tsunami that would cause destruction both at sea and on land near a seashore.

Small objects frequently collide with the Earth. There is an inverse relationship between the size of the object and the frequency that such objects hit the earth. Asteroids with a 1 km (0.62 mi) diameter strike the Earth every 500,000 years on average. Large collisions, with 5 km (3 mi) objects, happen approximately once every ten million years. The last known impact of an object of 10 km (6 mi) or more in diameter was at the Cretaceous-Tertiary extinction event 65 million years ago which wiped out the dinosaurs.

Asteroids with diameters of 5 to 10 m (16 to 33 ft) enter the Earth's atmosphere approximately once per year, with as much energy as the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima, approximately 15 kilotons of TNT. Usually they explode in the upper atmosphere, and most or all of the solids are vaporized. Objects with diameters over 50 m (164 ft) strike the Earth approximately once every thousand years, producing explosions comparable to the one known to have detonated above Tunguska in 1908. At least one known asteroid with a diameter of over 1 km (0.62 miles) may collide with Earth on March 16, 2880.

Objects with diameters smaller than 10 m (33 ft) are called meteoroids (or meteorites if they strike the ground). An estimated 500 meteorites reach the surface each year, but only 5 or 6 of these are recovered and made known to scientists.

The most significant recorded impact on earth in recent times was the Tunguska event, which occurred in Siberia, Russia, in 1908. This incident involved an explosion that was probably caused by the airburst of an asteroid or comet 5 to 10 km (3.1 to 6.2 mi) above the Earth's surface. It caused an estimated 80 million trees over 2,150 km² (830 sq mi) to be knocked over. In my latest Morgaine novel, Morgaine and the Necromancer, this event plays a part in the plot.

Numerous science fiction stories and novels center around an impact event; possibly the best-selling was the novel Lucifer's Hammer by Larry Niven and Jerry Pournelle. Arthur C. Clarke's novel Rendezvous with Rama opens with a significant asteroid impact in northern Italy in the year 2077 which gives rise to the Spaceguard Project, which later discovers the Rama spacecraft. In 1992 a Congressional study in the U.S. led to NASA being directed to undertake a Spaceguard Survey with the novel being named as the inspiration for the name to search for Earth-impacting asteroids. This in turn inspired Clarke's 1993 novel The Hammer of God. A variation on the traditional impact story was provided by Jack McDevitt's 1999 novel Moonfall, in which a very large comet travelling at interstellar velocities collides with and partially destroys the Moon, fragments of which then collide with the Earth.

Several disaster movies have also been made: When Worlds Collide (1951) dealt with two planets on a collision course with Earth – the smaller planet a "near miss," causing extensive damage and destruction, followed by a direct hit from the larger planet. Meteor (1979) features small asteroid fragments and a large 8 km (5 mi) wide asteroid heading for Earth. Orbiting U.S. and Soviet nuclear weapons platforms are turned away from their respective earthbound targets, and toward the incoming threat. In 1998 two films were released in the United States on the subject of attempting to stop impact events: Touchstone Pictures' Armageddon, about an asteroid; and Paramount/DreamWorks' Deep Impact, about a comet.

The prophesies in the Book of Revelation in the Christian bible seem to indicate that part of the devastation of the Apocalypse will be caused by objects falling from the sky. I used this scenario in the fifth book of my Morgaine series of novels, Morgaine and Armageddon.

Whether a catastrophic asteroid collision with earth will occur within our lifetime is problematical. What is certain is that sooner or later, one will strike. Will we be ready to either divert it or deal with the consequences?

Armageddon

Is it just me, but doesn't it seem that horrendous disasters have been more frequent in the twentieth and twenty-first centuries? The twentieth century saw a world wide flu epidemic, two world wars, the holocaust, mad dictators who murdered millions, the invention of the atom and hydrogen bombs, the brink of a full scale nuclear war, famines in Africa, pollution, global warming and much more, not to mention natural disasters such as earthquakes and hurricanes. The first six years of the twenty-first century are not starting out much better.

Could it be that the End of Days is at hand? Prophets have been predicting it for a long time. How can we know when it near? Here is my interpretation of Christian Bible prophetic sources related to current events.

The Bible contains many prophecies about the future. The New Testament in particular talks extensively about the return of Jesus Christ to this earth. This is usually called his "second coming." The Gospel of Matthew, Chapter 24, is devoted to this topic, as is much of the book of Revelation, and Thessalonians 4:16-18.

One day the disciples came to Jesus and were given a private briefing regarding the signs before his return and of the end of the age, Jesus replied: "Watch out that no one deceives you. For many will come in my name, claiming, 'I am the Christ, ' and will deceive many. You will hear of wars and rumors of wars, but see to it that you are not alarmed. Such things must happen, but the end is still to come. Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom. There will be famines and earthquakes in various places. All these are the beginning of birth pains. Matthew 24:3-8

Did this predict the two world wars, the famines in Africa and the many disastrous earthquakes in the past hundred years?

There will be signs in the sun, moon and stars. On the earth, nations will be in anguish and perplexity at the roaring and tossing of the sea.

Is this about the recent spate of hurricanes?

Then they will deliver you to tribulation, and will kill you, and you will be hated by all nations on account of my name. At that time many will fall away and will deliver up one another and hate one another. Many false prophets will arise and will mislead many.

I don't know about the first part, but doesn't it seem that there are a lot false prophets around. Preachers who pretend to be Christian but preach hate. Recently a famous televangelist told his listeners to pray for someone's death and later stated that a certain dictator should be assassinated. I haven't heard of any exceptions or clauses to the commandment "Thou shalt not kill."

Mark 13:14-28: But when you see the abomination of desolation standing where it should not be then let those who are in Judea flee to the mountains. And let him who is on the housetop not go down, or enter in, to get anything out of his house; and let him who is in the field not turn back to get his cloak. But woe to those who are with child and to those who nurse babes in those days! But pray that it may not happen in the winter. For those days will be a time of tribulation such as has not occurred since the beginning of creation which God created, until now, and never shall. And unless the Lord had shortened those days, no life would have been saved; but for the sake of the elect whom He chose, He shortened the days. And then if any man shall say to you, Lo, here [is] Christ; or, lo, [he is] there; believe [him] not: For false Christs and false prophets shall rise, and shall shew signs and wonders, to seduce, if [it were] possible, even the elect. But take ye heed: behold, I have foretold you all things. But in those days, after that tribulation, the sun shall be darkened, and the moon shall not give her light, And the stars of heaven shall fall, and the powers that are in heaven shall be shaken. And then shall they see the Son of man coming in the clouds with great power and glory. And then shall he send his angels, and shall gather togetherhis elect from the four winds, from the uttermost part of the earth to the uttermost part of heaven.

Could the references to "the stars of heaven shall fall" be a reference to the collision by a giant meteor or comet that astronomers say is inevitable. In 2004, a small near-Earth asteroid (NEA), made the closest approach to Earth ever recorded. The object, designated 2004 FH, was roughly 30 meters (100 feet) in diameter and passed just 43,000 km (26,500 miles, or about 3.4 Earth diameters) above the Earth's surface on March 18th at 5:08 PM EST. On average, objects about the size of 2004 FH pass within this distance roughly once every two years. Most of these small objects pass by undetected. This particular close approach is unusual only in the sense that scientists knew about it.

A recently rediscovered 400-meter Near-Earth Asteroid (NEA) is predicted to pass near the Earth on 13 April 2029. The flyby distance is uncertain and an Earth impact cannot be ruled out. The odds of impact, presently around 1 in 300, are unusual enough to merit special monitoring by astronomers, but should not be of public concern. In all likelihood, the possibility of impact will be eliminated as astronomers track the asteroid.

If an asteroid between 30 - 400 meters actually strikes earth, how much damage would cause? It is estimated that the object that leveled forests in Tunguska, Siberia in 1908 was of this scale. Imagine if it hit a populated area.

If an asteroid of size 200 meters hit the ocean (which covers 70% of the Earth), the tsunami would inflict catastrophic destruction of coastal cities and substantial worldwide human casualties along coastlines. An asteroid of one kilometer size striking the Earth would cause a dust cloud which would block out sunlight for at least a year and lead to a deep worldwide winter, exhausting food supplies. The latter is what caused the dinosaur extinction, as well as other major extinctions in geologic time scales. Two hundred meter asteroid hits, far more common than the one kilometer or more strikes, do not show up much in geologic histories since over time their craters are obliterated by erosion.

On March 23, 1989, an asteroid with a kinetic energy of over 1000 one-megaton hydrogen bombs (i.e., about 50,000 times more powerful than the bomb dropped on Hiroshima) was passed very close to Earth. It was discovered by equipment that uses new technology. Named 1989FC, this asteroid was detected after its point of closest approach. Astronomers discovered it had passed as close as it did only after they calculated its orbital path backwards in time. This event brought near Earth asteroids into the political arena.

Luke 21:20-24: But when you see Jerusalem surrounded by armies, then recognize that her desolation is at hand. Then let those in Judea flee to the mountains, and let those who are in the midst of the city depart, and let not those who are in the country enter the city; because these are the days of vengeance, in order that all things which are written may be fulfilled. Woe to those who nurse babes in those days; for there will be great distress upon the land, and wrath to this people, and they will fall by the edge of the sword, and will be led captive into all the nations; and Jerusalem will be trampled underfoot by the Gentiles until the times of the Gentiles be fulfilled.

Just think about what is happening in the Mideast these days, and the prophesy seems to refer to current and possible future events in that region. Also note the following prophesy:

Ezekiel 38: 5-7: Persia, Ethiopia, and Libya with them; all of them with shield and helmet: Gomer, and all his bands; the house of Togarmah of the north quarters, and all his bands: [and] many people with thee. Be thou prepared, and prepare for thyself, thou, and all thy company that are assembled unto thee, and be thou a guard unto them.

Ezekiel 39: 1-6: Therefore, thou son of man, prophesy against Gog, and say, Thus saith the Lord God; Behold, I [am] against thee, O Gog, the chief prince of Meshech and Tubal: And I will turn thee back, and leave but the sixth part of thee, and will cause thee to come up from the north parts, and will bring thee upon the mountains of Israel: And I will smite thy bow out of thy left hand, and will cause thine arrows to fall out of thy right hand. Thou shalt fall upon the mountains of Israel, thou, and all thy bands, and the people that [is] with thee: I will give thee unto the ravenous birds of every sort, and [to] the beasts of the field to be devoured. Thou shalt fall upon the open field: for I have spoken [it], saith the Lord God. And I will send a fire on Magog, and among them that dwell carelessly in the isles: and they shall know that I [am] the Lord.

Although there is some disagreement among scholars exactly which modern nations this refers to, all the nations in the area where these ancient nations existed in Ezekial's time have mostly Muslim populations today, the extremists of which hate Israel and wish it destroyed.

Joel 3:14-15: The sun and the moon grow dark, and the stars lose their brightness

Matthew 24:29 The sun will be darkened, the moon will not give its light, and the stars will fall from the sky

Mark 13:24 But in those days, after that tribulation, The sun will be darkened, the moon will not give its light, and the stars will be falling from heaven

These verses seem to refer to nuclear winter, a condition caused by great clouds of dust to form that block out the sun for years, which in turn would cause plant life to fail. This condition could come about from either a full-scale nuclear war or a collision by a large asteroid.

Despite all of the above, the prophesies may not be referring to our modern era at all or may be referring to some future period. After all, Jesus told his disciples, "The lord of that servant shall come in a day when he looketh not for him, and in an hour that he is not aware of."

The sixth, seventh and eighth E-books in my Morgaine series are about a fictional Armageddon. They are Morgaine and Armageddon, Morgaine and Moonwood and Morgaine and Nicholas.

Fairies, Elves and Dwarfs

There are many web sites devoted to these tiny creatures, many of which have beautiful illustrations. Fairies and elves permeate children's and some adult fantasy literature. But, what I always wondered is what are these creatures really, and how did the legends about them get started. So I looked into the matter. Faerie is very ancient and predates Christianity by several millennia. Moreover it exists, and has existed, in varying forms, in many countries all over the world.

According to Wikipedia, an elf is a mythical creature of Germanic origin which survives in northern European folklore. It is believed that they originated as a race of minor gods of nature and fertility. Elves are often pictured as youthful-seeming men and women of great beauty living in forests and other natural places, underground, or in wells and springs. They have been portrayed to be long-lived or immortal and they have magical powers attributed to them.

The actual origin of fairies is not clear. Various experts believe that they are nature spirits, the dead, elementals, pagan deities and so forth. The fairy tradition in literature began in the 1380s, with Chaucer and Gower. In their eyes, the fairies are a vanishing race, partly frightening and partly comic. However, the fairy mythology contains a consistent set of beliefs, that fairies and elves dance in rings, live in hills, are ruled by a queen, and so forth.

In northern England, elf is retained as the usual word for beings in the modern period, the Romance fairy being rejected. This may well be the result of Scandinavian influence. Scandinavian influence is certainly present in those place names which refer to dwarfs. Mythological dwarfs are found in northern England and Scotland place names, due to the Norse influence.

In Wales fairies or elves are called the "Tylwyth Teg." According to one authority, the fairies were men and women of mortal flesh and blood, and that the later superstitions are a mere echo of tales which first were told of real beings. There is a tradition of a race of beings who, in the middle of the sixteenth century, inhabited the Great Dark Wood (Coed y Dugoed Mawr) in Merionethshire, and who were called the Red Fairies. They lived in dens in the ground, had fiery red hair and long strong arms, and stole sheep and cattle by night. There are cottages in Cemmaes parish, near the Great Dark Wood, with scythes in the chimneys, which were put there to keep these terrible beings out.

A theory in Wales is that the Tylwyth Teg are the souls of dead mortals not bad enough for hell nor good enough for heaven. They are doomed to live on earth, to dwell in secret places, until the resurrection day, when they will be admitted into paradise. Meantime they must be either incessantly toiling or incessantly playing, but their toil is fruitless and their pleasure unsatisfying. A variation of this general belief holds these souls to be the souls of the ancient Druids Another variation considers the fairies bad spirits who were thrown over the battlements of heaven along with Satan, but did not fall into hell, but landed on the earth instead, where they are permitted to tarry till doomsday.

The Icelandic version, know as Huldre Folk in the Scandinavian countries, states that Lilith was washing her children when God spoke to her. In her fear she hid the children that had not been washed yet. When God had asked if these were all her children, she replied, "Yes." He decreed that those she had hidden from him would be hidden from man. Lullabies were sang to babies so that Lillith would not hear them cry, as it was lore she would take them to replace her own children that she lost.

In Devon, pixies are thought to be the souls of unbaptised children. That faeries were the heathen dead, not good enough for heaven, but not bad enough for hell.

The modern concept of Faery and faeryland can be attributed to Shakespeare, especially from the Midsummer Night's Dream.

On type of elf that is peculiar to the Irish is the leprechaun, which is a solitary creature avoiding contact with mortals and the whole fairy tribe. He pours all of his passion into the concentration of carefully making shoes. A leprechaun can always be found with a shoe in one hand and a hammer in the other. Most leprechauns are ugly, stunted creatures, not taller than boys of the age of ten or twelve. But they are broad and bulky, with faces like dried apples. They have a mischievous light in their eyes and their bodies, despite their stubbiness, usually move gracefully. They possess all the earth's treasures, but prefer to dress drab. Usually gray or green colored coats, a sturdy pocket-studded apron, and a hat, sometimes green or dusty red colored. They have been know to be foul-mouthed, smoke ill-smelling pipes called 'dudeens' and drink beer (or is it Guinness) from handy jugs. Leprechauns guard the fairies' treasures. Although, they hide the treasures well, the presence of a rainbow alerts mortals to the whereabouts of gold hordes. If a mortal catches a leprechaun and sternly demands his treasure, he will give it to the mortal. Rarely does this happen. Occasionally, especially after a wee too much Guinness, he will offer a mortal not only a drink but some of his treasure.