How the Internet Changed Everything

When I first started reading science fiction, around the age of twelve, the world was a different place. A telephone was a black instrument chained to the wall by a cord. Books had hard covers. Computers were a gleam in some scientist's eye. Even science fiction was packaged in 8 ½ by 11 magazines printed on blotting paper with garish covers on them. Getting to the moon was an impossible dream. The only people you considered your friends lived in your neighborhood, and you corresponding with people by writing a letter on paper and mailing it. Only a few people had TV sets and the shows were in black and white. Even the science-fiction writers I read could not guess the changes that would occur in the twenty-first century.

Of all the changes that have occurred since then, none changed our way of life more profoundly than the home computer and the internet. And the changes are accelerating. Who would've ever believed that one could carry around a powerful computer in your pocket? That people would read books on devices that would threaten the print book industry? And who would believe that you could get information on any subject simply by typing in the subject and clicking on an icon labeled Search? Or order any item at the lowest possible price simply by typing and clicking an the back of a gadget that looks like a bug or a mouse?

That people would be in constant touch with people they hardly know all over the world and get all the details of their lives? Or that people would spend hours in virtual worlds? Or that secrecy would come to an end where even the most repressive government cannot control what information their people receive or what secrets are revealed? Or that people would get in traffic accidents because they are typing messages while they drive? That I could talk to my daughter face-to-face even though she lives three thousand miles away? That a gadget in my car would give directions on how to go anywhere as I drive, telling me exactly when I need to turn as I approach the intersection?

And that is only the beginning of the changes that are occurring. Soon we'll have robot servants, driverless automobiles and the ability to speak to our computers instead of having to type or use a mouse. Just recently a video game allows a person to control the action by simply waving arms around. And what about the special effects in movies these days? And now 3D TV sets are available.

The digital age has ushered a new language as well. Here are few of the new words: LOL, FAQ, IM-ing, E-mailing, E-books, download, upload, web site, internet, web page, tweeting, unfriending, writing on a wall, Twitter, Facebook, Google and googling, and on and on.

It's hard to say what will be next. Today's world goes so far beyond the world of my youth that even the most imaginative SF writers of that time could not imagine it.

Las Vegas

I visited Las Vegas with my wife and daughter and her family in 1996. Here are few pictures from that trip.
Land of Oz in the MGM Grand



The Luxor

T

Olive Oyl and Brutus


Knights on horseback Treasure Island



The Excaliber



Caesar's Palace



Boulder Dam

Is Anyone Out There

In Science Fiction, alien races are as common as ragweed in September. Yet, although we've been listening for a while with SETI, so far we have detected no signals indicating a technological advanced race in our galaxy. There may be many reasons for this. We may be listening on the wrong frequency, the signals may be too weak to detect, something is blocking the signals, and so forth. I'm discounting the claims of UFOologists since no credible evidence has shown that an alien race has entered our solar system. Does this mean we are alone in the galaxy? A provocative question. The odds are probably that we are not. So how do we estimate the number of advanced civilizations that actually exist? That's what I intend to discuss in this article.

In the first place, there are a hundred billion stars in the galaxy. That would seem to indicate that the odds were heavily in favor of many advanced civilization existing. The question becomes what is the likelihood of an advanced civilization arising on any particular star system. A radio astronomer by the name of Frake Drake came up with the following formula for estimating the number of advanced civilizations: N = R* x fp x ne x fl x fi x fc x L

N is the number of advanced civilizations.

R* is the average rate of star formation. New stars are being born all the time. So the new additions must be calculated into the formula. Astronomical estimates vary from 2 to 20 a year.

fp is the fraction of stars having planetary system. Until recently, this number would be considered to be a low one by many astronomers. Recently, however, they've discovered that almost all stars have planets. Therefore, this number should be about 95%.

So far, we're doing pretty good. It would seem to be a lot of aliens around. But the next numbers whittled the estimate down quite a bit.

ne is the number of planets with a suitable environment that life could come into being and develop. In our own solar system, the only place that we've found is earth. The planet cannot be too cold or too hot. The moons of the outer planets are too cold, Venus is too hot. It must have liquid water. Mars, at this time, is too dry. It had liquid water in the past. Did life develop there and die out? That's what we're investigating now with our probes.

As far as an estimate for ne, all the planets that we've detected around other stars have been gas giants, which cannot possibly sustain life. But that does not mean that small earth like planets do not exist. In fact they probably do, but are too small to detect. Some moons of the gas giants may lie in a habitable zone. Still, out of a hundred billion stars, it would seem to me that at least ten percent would have earth like planets with the right ingredients to form life.

fl is the fraction of habitable planets where life actually came into being. Since modern biology seems to conclude that life would form where the conditions allow it. That would seem to make this number 100%. Not quite. The age of the earth is around 4.5 billion years old. The oldest fossil evidence for life is 3.5 billion years. This may mean that it took a billion years for life to develop. Many stars do not last that long. In fact, at least half expire in much less time. As a result, my guesstimate for this figure would be 50%.

fi is the fraction having intelligent life. This is a tough one. It took about 3.5 billion years for life to evolve into us. Along the way, there were several times when the prevalent life was almost wiped out; some say by giant meteors crashing into earth. What if the dinosaurs had not been wiped out by some catastrophe? Would they have developed intelligence? No one knows. It is very possible that many planets in the galaxy have life forms, but not with enough intelligence to develop sophisticated technology. This must be a very small number.

fc is the fraction having advanced technology. Again, human beings evolved from ape-like creatures around a million years ago. It took us to a million years to develop a technology capable of space travel and radio telescopes. This number is the fraction of intelligent beings having this capability at any given time.

A small digression. Stellar distances are so great that chances are that if we did receive a signal from an alien species, the signal could be as much as 50,000 years old. The aliens who broadcast it might have perished eons ago.

Which brings us to L, which is the average lifetime of an intelligent species. During the 1950s we came close to destroying ourselves in an atomic war. Many believe that we will pollute ourselves to extinction. A comet or asteroid could crash into the earth and destroy us. A terrible unstoppable plague could wipe us out. As you can see, intelligent species can perish. How often this happens is anyone's guess. Once advanced technology is reached, how long does an intelligent species last? Millions of years? Thousands? Hundreds? Tens? Your guess is as good as mine. So far we've managed to survive the twentieth century. Can we survive the twenty-first?

For more information on Drake's equation and the possibility of life in other star systems, go to the web site Astrobiology, which has, among a wealth of information, a calculator where you can plug in various numbers to determine how many possible alien civilizations exist in the Milky Way galaxy using various parameters.

What Would ETs Look Like

As a long time science-fiction fan, I've often speculated on what an intelligent extraterrestrial being would really be like (if they exist at all). Would they be similar to human beings "with warts" as many movie and TV shows such as Star Trek, Star Wars and Babylon 5 depict them? Or would they be completely different, perhaps big fat grubs like Jaba the Hut, have octopus heads such as the writer H. P. Lovecraft's stories pictured them or have long skinny humanoid bodies, big eyes and no nose as many UFOologists claim? In this blog I'd like to give my opinions based on the latest scientific information.

First let us consider all the diverse types of life that have existed on our own planet throughout the three billion years since life first appeared. In size, living things vary from the microscopic to such gargantuan forms as whales, mastodons and brontosaurus. Life is everywhere, in deserts, seas and forests, even in volcanic vents, arctic climates and underground; each form adapted to its environment. Also, as conditions changed, the forms changed. For example, some animals whose ancestors walked on solid ground have evolved into sea creatures. It would seem then that life on a planet with completely different parameters would evolve into completely different forms. Or would it? Under different conditions, similar types of creatures have appeared. One example is a one horned thick legged herbivore such as Rhinos and Triceratops, one being a mammal, the other a dinosaur.

But what are the chances of a creature evolving that would be as intelligent as us or perhaps even more intelligent? Animals such as dolphins and whales have larger brains and may be as intelligent. Nonetheless, they are not capable of producing technology and probably never will.

The question remains. Would aliens be animals, plants or have characteristics of both? Would they have arms and legs and walk upright as we do? Would they depend upon vision as their primary sense or use another way to gather information about their surroundings? Would they "breathe" oxygen or some other gas?

First let's take a look at how evolution by natural selection (Darwinism) actually works. The basic rules governing whether species arise, live, remain unchanged or become extinct are those of evolution by natural selection as proposed by Charles Darwin. According to Darwin's Theory of Evolution, similar organisms reproduce similar organisms -- a dog reproduces a dog, a dandelion reproduces dandelions and a fish reproduces a fish. Often, the number of offspring are overproduced such that the number that survive is fewer than the number reproduced. In any population, individuals vary with respect to any given trait, such as height, skin color, fur color or shape of beaks, and these variations can be passed on to the next generation. Some variations are favorable, in that they make those individuals best-suited to their environment, and some are not. Those organisms with favorable variations will survive and pass those traits on to their offspring; those individuals with unfavorable variations will die before producing new individuals. Hence they would not pass on their traits. This is natural selection. Given sufficient time, natural selection accumulate favorable or neutral traits so that a new species evolves.

Using what we have learned from life on Earth, what can we say about alien life? While it may be vastly different from life on Earth, it must follow certain universal guidelines dictated by the laws of physics and chemistry. It must consist mainly of some sort of solvent. On Earth, the solvent used by life forms is liquid water. Other chemicals, such as ammonia, methane, hydrogen sulfide or hydrogen fluoride, could be the solvent in an alien life form.

Living things require temperatures and pressures at which its solvent remains liquid and need energy to remain organized. Most things on earth are powered by sunlight either directly or indirectly. An alien world, in order to sustain life, must have a source of energy, whether it be sunlight or other energy source.

On Earth living things are made of complex, carbon-based molecules that carry out biochemical functions. DNA molecules contain genetic information and direct the formation of other molecules to allow life to reproduce and function. Alien life forms must also have some type of informational molecule. Carbon can form bonds with up to four other atoms, in many shapes, to make many types of molecules. Although silicon is not as versatile as carbon, it can also form up to four bonds with other atoms and has been proposed as a basis for molecules of alien life, if the environment were such that silicon was more abundant than carbon. Alien beings larger than microbes must be multicelled.

The physiological make-up of a multicelled alien must be suited to its environment. Internal systems would be adapted to environmental conditions such as temperature, moisture and gravity. The alien must bring solids, liquids and gases inside its body, distribute them to every cell and remove waste products.

The alien must have senses to obtain information from the environment and respond to stimuli. They must also have the equivalent of a brain and a nervous system to process information. They must also have a means of reproduction of their species.

Alien organisms would probably have similar ecological structures to life on Earth. Population sizes would be limited based on the amount and type of food, predators, disease and other environmental factors. Just as life on Earth, alien life forms would exist in food chains and food webs in their native environment. Life forms similar to plants will create food that other life forms such as herbivores and omnivores will eat. There may be carnivores that eat other animals. Life forms such as bacteria are needed to recycle dead organisms into the environment.

Life of any kind is intimately tied to its environment. The characteristics of the planet would be extremely important in determining the characteristics of the life forms that exist on it..

Now what about the life form we are most interested in, an ET intelligent enough to use and create a high-level of technology? In the long evolution of animal life on earth, some characteristic are universal and appear in many species, such as limbs and eyes. Other characteristics such as hair, hands with fingers, skin coloring, the mechanics of sex, and so forth are arbitrary and appears in some species and not others. One of these are brains with the capability to produce advanced technology. In three and half billion years of evolution, such intelligence has appeared in a species only a couple of million of years ago, a very short time in evolutionary terms.

The design of any animal is toward survival in its environment. These designs can be arrived at via different evolutionary routes. For instance, predators in the ocean have a survival advantage if they swim fast. Consequently many of them have a torpedo shape, simply because this streamlined form gives them a better chance at snagging a dinner or escape being eaten. Dolphins and barracudas look similar in silhouette, although they evolved from very different forebears. Their shapes are the result of convergent evolution.

Some biologists have suggested that the same may be true of humans and extraterrestrial life -- that the human body plan is a good design for an intelligent creature. We have arms terminated by little hands that are useful for writing and using tools. We have two eyes with overlapping vision, which provides three-dimensional views of the world. Such vision aids in the use of tools. The eyes are located high up, which allows us to peer over grass and brush to find a mate, a meal or an approaching enemy. There are many more such traits. Humans, in many ways, are a reasonably functional design for a technically sophisticated creature.

I cannot conclude that humans are the best design (although some people insist that we are not). An intelligent technologically advanced ET may resemble us, but not exactly. After all, an extra set of arms might be useful, as would an eye in the back of our heads. A double spine might allow faster and easier walking, and a few extra digits on each hand could make for better tool use or piano playing. Any technologically advanced ET would probably have some features in common with us (two eyes, instead of one, for instance). Intelligent extraterrestrials may look vaguely humanoid, but no more than vaguely. So, perhaps the TV show and movies have it right. ETs will probably resemble humans with warts.